The first wage-weighted H-1B lottery is done. USCIS completed the FY2027 selection process by March 31, reaching the 85,000 cap in a single round. The system worked. And the policy landscape around it is already shifting.
Early data from immigration law firms suggests the 4:3:2:1 weighting produced outcomes broadly consistent with DHS projections — but with enough variation to complicate simple assumptions about who benefits and who doesn't. Meanwhile, three developments now in motion could materially alter the wage-weighted system's impact before the next cap season begins.
Here's where things stand.
What the first selection data shows
USCIS has not yet published official FY2027 registration statistics. The agency typically releases that data weeks after selections are made. But immigration law firms tracking their own client pools have begun reporting results, and the patterns are consistent.
Manifest Law, analyzing its FY2027 client data, reported that Level III and Level IV registrations were selected at rates roughly 2.5 to 2.8 times higher than Level I — directionally consistent with the 4:3:2:1 entry multiplier. One notable finding: their Level III selection rate (69.2%) actually exceeded their Level IV rate (65.2%), though the firm attributed that to normal statistical variance in a smaller sample.
Immigration attorneys had projected FY2027 registrations would fall to between 200,000 and 250,000 — a dramatic decline from the 343,981 eligible registrations filed for FY2026. If those estimates are close, that represents a further 27 to 42 percent drop from FY2026, and a 67 to 74 percent decline from the FY2024 peak of 758,994 registrations, when mass duplicate filings inflated the pool.
The registration collapse has a compounding effect. Fewer registrations in the pool means higher selection rates for everyone — even at Level I. The wage weighting determines relative advantage, but the absolute probability at each level depends on pool size.
For context, the FY2026 selection rate was approximately 35.3 percent under the beneficiary-centric (but unweighted) system. FY2027 overall rates may land between 34 and 42 percent, with wide dispersion across wage levels. DHS's own modeling, published in the final rule, projected approximate selection probabilities of 61 percent for Level IV, 46 percent for Level III, 31 percent for Level II, and 15 percent for Level I — based on historical registration distributions.
The early firm data suggests actual rates tracked in that range, though small-sample effects and self-selection in the registration pool (employers who shifted strategies in response to the new system) make firm-by-firm numbers imperfect proxies for system-wide outcomes.
How the weighting works
Under the final rule published December 29, 2025 (89 FR 2025-23853), DHS replaced the random H-1B cap lottery with a weighted selection process tied to DOL Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) wage levels:
- Level IV (expert): 4 entries in the selection pool
- Level III (experienced): 3 entries
- Level II (qualified): 2 entries
- Level I (entry): 1 entry
Each unique beneficiary still counts only once toward the 85,000 cap. The weighting affects probability of selection, not allocation. An offered wage below Level I — based on a private survey or collective bargaining agreement — still receives one entry.
Registration requires the employer to specify the SOC code, area of intended employment, and the highest OEWS wage level the offered salary equals or exceeds. If multiple employers register the same beneficiary, USCIS enters that person at the lowest wage level among the registrations — a counterintuitive penalty that caught some employers off guard this cycle.
Petitions filed after selection must match the registration's wage level, SOC code, and location. USCIS has stated it will deny or revoke petitions where it finds evidence of manipulation — inflated wage levels, misclassified occupations, or post-registration salary reductions.
Three things that could change the math before FY2028
1. DOL wants to raise the wage floors
On March 27, 2026, the Department of Labor published a proposed rule that would substantially increase prevailing wage floors across all four tiers.
The current Level I wage sits at approximately the 17th percentile of the OEWS wage distribution — a threshold unchanged since 2005. DOL proposes moving it to the 34th percentile. Level IV would jump from the 67th percentile to the 88th. Levels II and III would land at approximately the 52nd and 70th percentiles, respectively.
DOL estimates the proposed changes would increase the average certified wage by approximately $14,000 per year per worker. The agency's analysis found that more than 75 percent of LCA positions certified between FY2020 and FY2024 would fall below the proposed new wage floors.
The connection to the wage-weighted lottery is direct: prevailing wage levels determine your tier in the lottery. If DOL raises the floor for Level II from the 34th to the 52nd percentile, some positions currently classified at Level II will drop to Level I — cutting their lottery entries in half.
The proposed rule is open for public comment until May 26, 2026. If finalized, it would not apply retroactively. FY2027 cap petitions now being filed are expected to be unaffected, since their LCAs were filed before the rule's anticipated effective date. But FY2028 registrations — the March 2027 cap season — would face the new wage floors if the rule is finalized on schedule.
This is the development that matters most for forward planning. The wage-weighted lottery creates incentives to pay more. The prevailing wage hike raises the bar for what "more" means.
2. The $100,000 fee may expire
Presidential Proclamation 10973, issued September 19, 2025, imposed a $100,000 supplemental fee on certain H-1B petitions — primarily those filed for beneficiaries outside the United States who require consular processing. The fee does not apply to change-of-status filings, which means most F-1 to H-1B transitions are exempt.
Unless renewed by executive action, the proclamation expires September 21, 2026.
The fee's impact on FY2027 registration volume appears significant. It effectively shut down consular-track H-1B sponsorship for most small and mid-sized employers. If it expires, registration volume for FY2028 could rebound substantially — which would push selection rates down across all wage levels.
Three legal challenges to the fee remain pending. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce challenged the fee in D.C. federal court; Judge Beryl Howell upheld it in December 2025, and the Chamber filed a notice of appeal on December 29. Additional lawsuits are pending in the Northern District of California (Global Nurse Force v. Trump) and in Massachusetts (a multistate attorney general challenge led by California and Massachusetts).
3. Litigation hasn't stopped
No court has enjoined the wage-weighted lottery itself. But the legal ground remains contested. Multiple commenters during the rulemaking argued that DHS exceeded its statutory authority by using wage as a proxy for skill, and that the approach is arbitrary.
The Supreme Court's recent limits on universal injunctions make a broad nationwide block less likely. But targeted relief — or a ruling that forces DHS to revisit the weighting methodology — remains possible. Employers should plan as if the rule will apply unless a court says otherwise.
What this means right now
For employers in the current FY2027 filing window (April 1 through June 30, 2026): the immediate task is straightforward. File petitions consistent with registration data. USCIS is accepting only the 02/27/26 edition of Form I-129. Documentation must support the wage level, SOC code, and area of employment specified during registration.
For longer-term planning: the wage-weighted lottery is not a static system. Its effects depend on three variables — the weighting formula, the prevailing wage levels that define each tier, and the size of the registration pool. Two of those three variables are now in active flux.
If DOL finalizes its prevailing wage proposal and the $100K fee expires, FY2028 could look substantially different from FY2027. Higher wage floors would compress more positions into lower tiers. A larger registration pool from the fee's expiration would reduce selection rates. The combined effect could offset much of the advantage that higher-wage employers gained this year.
This is not speculation about what might happen. The prevailing wage NPRM is published and open for comment. The fee has a statutory expiration date. These are scheduled events.
The final rule governing the wage-weighted selection process was published in the Federal Register on December 29, 2025: "Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions" (89 FR 2025-23853). The DOL prevailing wage NPRM was published March 27, 2026: "Improving Wage Protections for the Temporary and Permanent Employment of Certain Foreign Nationals in the United States" (Docket No. ETA-2026-0001; RIN 1205-AC30). USCIS confirmed the FY2027 selection process was completed in a March 31, 2026 news release.